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OBJECTIVE@#To predict the trend of cutaneous leishmaniasis and assess the relationship between the disease trend and weather variables in south of Fars province using Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) model.@*METHODS@#The trend of cutaneous leishmaniasis was predicted using Mini tab software and SARIMA model. Besides, information about the disease and weather conditions was collected monthly based on time series design during January 2010 to March 2016. Moreover, various SARIMA models were assessed and the best one was selected. Then, the model's fitness was evaluated based on normality of the residuals' distribution, correspondence between the fitted and real amounts, and calculation of Akaike Information Criteria (AIC) and Bayesian Information Criteria (BIC).@*RESULTS@#The study results indicated that SARIMA model (4,1,4)(0,1,0) in general and SARIMA model (4,1,4)(0,1,1) in below and above 15 years age groups could appropriately predict the disease trend in the study area. Moreover, temperature with a three-month delay (lag3) increased the disease trend, rainfall with a four-month delay (lag4) decreased the disease trend, and rainfall with a nine-month delay (lag9) increased the disease trend.@*CONCLUSIONS@#Based on the results, leishmaniasis follows a descending trend in the study area in case drought condition continues, SARIMA models can suitably measure the disease trend, and the disease follows a seasonal trend.
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Objective To predict the trend of cutaneous leishmaniasis and assess the relationship between the disease trend and weather variables in south of Fars province using Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) model. Methods The trend of cutaneous leishmaniasis was predicted using Mini tab software and SARIMA model. Besides, information about the disease and weather conditions was collected monthly based on time series design during January 2010 to March 2016. Moreover, various SARIMA models were assessed and the best one was selected. Then, the model's fitness was evaluated based on normality of the residuals’ distribution, correspondence between the fitted and real amounts, and calculation of Akaike Information Criteria (AIC) and Bayesian Information Criteria (BIC). Results The study results indicated that SARIMA model (4,1,4)(0,1,0)
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OBJECTIVES: The survival rate of thalassemia patients has not been conclusively established, and the factors associated with survival remain unclear. This study aimed to determine the survival rate of thalassemia among patients in southern Iran and to identify the factors associated with mortality from thalassemia. METHODS: This retrospective cohort study was conducted based on a retrospective review of the medical records of 911 beta-thalassemia patients in 2014. Data analysis was conducted using the Kaplan-Meier method and Cox regression analysis. RESULTS: Overall, 212 patients (23.3%) died, and 26.8% had thalassemia intermedia. The 20-year, 40-year, and 60-year survival rates were 85%, 63%, and 54%, respectively. Both crude and adjusted analyses found that education, marital status, ferritin levels, and comorbidities were related to mortality. CONCLUSIONS: Sociodemographic and hematological factors were found to be significantly associated with the survival rate of thalassemia. Addressing these factors may help healthcare providers and physicians to provide the best possible care and to improve the survival rate.
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Humans , beta-Thalassemia , Cohort Studies , Comorbidity , Education , Ferritins , Health Personnel , Iran , Kaplan-Meier Estimate , Marital Status , Medical Records , Mortality , Retrospective Studies , Statistics as Topic , Survival Rate , ThalassemiaABSTRACT
Multiple sclerosis [MS] is a complex polygenic disease in which gene-environment interactions are important. A number of studies have investigated the association between tumor necrosis factor-alpha [TNF-alpha] -308 G/A polymorphism [substitution G[rightwards arrow]A, designated as TNF1 and TNF2] and MS susceptibility in different populations, but the results of individual studies have been inconsistent. Therefore, performing a systematic review and meta-analysis of the published studies is desirable. We sought to quantitatively summarize the association between TNF-alpha-308 G/A polymorphism and MS. The Medline and Scopus databases were searched to identify potentially relevant case-control studies published in English journals up to January 2010. A meta-analysis of these studies was performed. Summary odds ratios [ORs] and 95% confidence intervals [CIs] were calculated under fixed and random effects models. Twenty-one eligible studies, comprising 2880 patients with MS and 3579 controls, were included in the meta-analysis. The overall pooled ORs [95%CI] for TNF2 versus TNF1 and TNF2 carriers [2/2+2/1] versus non-carriers [1/1] were 1.02 [0.86-1.21] and 0.99 [0.8-1.24], respectively. In the European populations, the pooled ORs [95%CI] for TNF 2/1 versus 1/1 were 0.85 [0.73-0.98], which was statistically significant. However, the other results did not support this finding. The pooled ORs [95%CI] for TNF 2/1 versus 1/1 and TNF 2/2 versus 2/1 were not statistically significant in the overall population. In addition, the pooled ORs for TNF2/2 versus TNF2/1+1/1 and TNF2/2 versus TNF1/1 were not statistically significant. Our meta-analysis does not support the role of TNF-alpha -308 G/A polymorphism in developing MS
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Background/Objective: This study aimed to address the knowledge gap in citizenship education. In other words, there was an attempt to investigate the effect of a citizenship education program on knowledge, attitudes, subjective norms, and behavioral intention of high schools girls
Methods: 228 female students, 91 in the experimental and 137 in the control groups participated in this study. A questionnaire was used to collect the data. The educational program was run in the experimental group using interactive teaching-learning techniques. The research data were, then, analyzed in SPSS, using inferential statistics
Results: The mean score of the students' knowledge in the experimental group increased from 7.35 +/- 1.93 in the pretest to 11.14 +/- 1.78 in the posttest, while in the control group this score remained approximately the same in the pre- and post-tests. The pre- and post-test means of attitude scores were statistically different, but not in the control group. The pretest mean scores of the subjective norm in the experimental and control groups were relatively similar, but in the posttest it became significantly different [experimental: 25.78 +/- 3.77, control: 23.40 +/- 4.62]. The students' behavioral intention score increased from 18.51 +/- 2.71 to 20.87 +/- 3.04 in the experimental group. The mean scores of intention in the pretest and posttest were not statistically different in the control group. In the second posttests, the levels of these constructs remained unchanged in the control group, but they were significantly higher than pretest scores in the experimental group
Conclusion: This study revealed the adolescents' need for as well as the efficacy of a citizenship education program
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Background: Malnutrition is one of the most common hazards which compromise children's health. Previous studies have reported high rates of malnutrition in Kohkilouyeh and Boyer Ahmad
Objective: This study was conducted to evaluate the frequency of child malnutrition in Yasuj and to explore the association between family characteristics and malnutrition
Methods: Data were collected from healthcare files of 285 infants aged 18 months and younger in Yasuj health care centers. Data included demographic information and anthropometric measurements at birth and at the last referral to health centers
Results: Rates of underweight, stunting, wasting, and low head circumference at birth were 17.9%, 13.4%, 27.8%, and 19%, and at the last referral they were 22.5%, 11.3%, 29%, and 15.5%, respectively. The frequency of underweight and wasting had significantly increased and that of stunting and low head circumference significantly decreased during the period between birth and the last referral. Birth wasting was significantly more common in younger mothers, families with fewer children, and shorter birth interval. Birth underweight and small head circumference was significantly associated with shorter birth interval. Child stunting was related to father's education level and child wasting was associated with mother's education. Parents' education did not have any association with birth malnutrition
Conclusion: Wasting appeared to be the major form of malnutrition among infants in Yasuj. It was very high at birth, and continued to elevate after birth. Elevating educational level of parents [over Diploma], educating parents to keep sufficient interval between pregnancies, and paying more attention to young mothers and those who are delivering their first baby are among strategies to ameliorate child wasting
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Obesity is one of the most common nutritional problems in adolescent. Knowing eating behavior of adolescents improve our understanding about this pandemic and helps design an appropriate preventive and care plan. in a cross-sectional study. 372 students selected randomly from 8 guidance schools of Shiraz Iran, during August-December 2009. Body weight was measured to the nearest 0.1 kg. height was measured in bare feet to the nearest 0.5 cm. Adolescents with a Body Mass Index [BMI] over the 85th but less than 95th percent!le are considered overweight and those with a BMI greater than the 95th percent!le are considered obese. Eating behaviors was assessed using Dutch eating behavior questionnaire [DEBQ]. The analysis was performed using the SPSS statistical soft- version 13. A P value of less than 0.05 was considered as statistically significant, The mean age of adolescent was 13.43 +/- 0.973 years. Of population studied, 23.9%. 22.35% and 53.8% were found to be obese, overweight and normal weight There was significant differences between restrained and external eating score in obese and overweight groups [P=0.000l]. Restrained eating score in obese and overweight adolescent was higher than those of normal weight group. There was no significant difference between emotional eating behavior in adolescent [P>0.05]. There was a positive significant correlation between dietary restriction and BMI [r-0.36] in adolescent [P-0.000]. Understanding the individual differences in eating behaviors is the first step in modifying programs for obesity. Emotional eating behavior is also recommended to be considered in designing preventive programs
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Pandemic flu had at least two waves in Iran. Knowing how many of the general population were already exposed to this infection has a major impact on national preventive measures. As of December 30, 2009, a total of 3672 confirmed cases of human infection with a novel Influenza A [2009 H1N1] virus had been reported in Iran with 140 deaths. In this study we aim to measure, as a pilot study, the seroprevalence of positive antibody titer [humoral immunity] against 2009 H1N1 virus in Iranian population in Shiraz, Southern Iran. Through cluster random sampling of families residing in Shiraz, 2553 subjects were selected and after a medical interview blood samples were taken and checked for polyclonal antibody against 2009 H1N1 antigen using hemagglutination inhibition assay. An antibody titer of more than 1:40 dilution was considered positive. Data were analyzed considering the demographic characteristics of the population and were compared among different age groups. 1504 [58.91%] samples were tested positive for the presence of polyclonal antibody against 2009 H1N1 virus. The prevalence of positive titers were significantly higher in 60 to 64 years old group and significantly lower in 20 to 24 years old group [p<0.05]. Data did not differ based on other demographic characteristics or the history of flu like illnesses in the past 6 months. High seroprevalence of antibody against 2009 H1N1 in the sera of our subjects describes either a high level of preexisting immunity against H1N1 in Iranian population or a high rate of asymptomatic infection in our area compared to other countries
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Humans , Male , Female , Hemagglutination Inhibition Tests , Influenza Vaccines , Immunity, Humoral , Pilot ProjectsABSTRACT
Cancer is considered among the second largest groups of noncommunicable diseases and the third cause of death in Iran. Ranking in the top ten cancers in the world. Espophagus cancer comes out on the sixth place. This study examines the epidemiology of esophagus cancer in Fars cancer registry. This was a descriptive -analytic study of cases of esophagus cancer registered in Fars between 2001 and 2005. Data were analyzed using t-student and chi square tests. Overall 161 cancer patients had been registered. 61.5% were males. Mean age at diagnosis was 61.9 [SD= 13.07]. 91.3% were married. Fars ethnic background accounted for 55.3% of the patients. Males and females were mainly farmers and housewives respectively. There was a history of smoking in 52.6% of the cases. Grade of tumor at diagnosis for most patients was well-differentiated. According to our follow-up, the disease resulted in death in 57.1% of the cases. Our results indicate the importance of eliminating risk factors for cancer of the esophagus including smoking and family history. Early detection of the disease in primary stages is also emphasized
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Humans , Male , Female , /diagnosis , /mortalityABSTRACT
Cesarean has been defined as surgical delivery in which the infant, placenta and membranes draw out through incision made on the mother's abdomen and uterus. Al present, 50-65 percent of deliveries in Iran are achieved by cesarean method. The aim of this study was to identify factors influencing termination of pregnancy with cesarean method. In this cross-sectional study, 420 mothers, referred to Shiraz governmental and private hospitals for delivery were selected. Data collection was performed by structured questionnaire and analyzed by SPSS software. The prevalence of cesarean was 89% and 63.28% in private and governmental hospitals, respectively, with the overall prevalence of 66.4%. Age, height, BMI, socioeconomic status, null parity, acceptance in private hospitals, cesarean history, induction of labor macrosomia, shoulder dystocia and breach presentation was significantly related to cesarean section [P<0.05]. In final model, cesarean history, age after 35 and education level were the most important factor for cesarean method of delivery. Although cesarean has been identified as a savior practice of mothers and neonates in emergency situation, its prevalence is increasing, because of physicians' tendency for economical benefits, and also, of mothers' fear from labor pain. So, mothers, especially nulliparous mothers should be persuaded for having vaginal delivery, in order to avoid cesarean complications in sequential deliveries
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Humans , Female , Delivery, Obstetric/methods , Pregnancy , Mothers , Cross-Sectional Studies , Data Collection , Surveys and QuestionnairesABSTRACT
Hepatitis C virus [HCV] infection is the common cause of liver disease among thalassemic patients who receive recurrent blood transfusion. Recent studies in Iran has shown a high prevalance of HCV among Iranian thalassemic patients, inspite of low HCV seroprevalence in general population. In this study we investigated the prevalence of new cases of hepatitis C and its risk factor in the group of thalassemia major patients. This study was carried out in thalassemic ward of Shiraz University of Medical Sciences, southern Iran in year 2003. Cases were interviewed using a standard questionnaire including demographic, clinical history and HCV related risk behaviors. Then 3 blood samples were investigated by serum marker of anti-HCV antiboby [anti-HCV Ab] via Eliza-3th method in times zero, 45 days and after 6 months follow-up. The mean age of patients were 15.2 +/- 6.3 [1-36 years old] and the proportion of male to female 1 to 1. The rate of HCV antibody positivity in the first sample was 25%. All of the second and third blood samples were negative. There was significant correlation between age and being positive for anti-HCV Ab [P < 0.001] and also between being positive anti-HCV Ab and the time they began to receive blood transfusion. The patients who started blood transfusion before 1996 [the year we started screening program for blood donors in Blood Bank in Iran] had 12.5 times more risk for being positive for anti-HCV Ab [odds ratio = 12.5]. Our results approved the effect of screening program for blood donors in blood transfusion centers